Introduction
Lebanon meet France in Round 3 of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup with the market total at 56.5 points. Both teams are 0-2, although their defensive records are dramatically different. Lebanon have averaged nine points scored and 39 conceded across two matches, while France have scored just two per game and conceded 80. Combining Lebanon's attacking average with France's defensive average produces 89 points, while France's attack against Lebanon's defence suggests 41. Those contrasting figures make this a fascinating total, with the quality of attacking opportunities likely to matter more than the extraordinary scorelines alone.
France were beaten 78-4 by Samoa before suffering an 82-0 defeat against England. Lebanon lost 42-18 to Papua New Guinea and then 36-0 to Tonga. Both attacks have struggled, although France's defensive collapses create obvious potential for a sizeable Lebanon score. The question is whether Lebanon can capitalise often enough to push the combined points beyond the market total, particularly with France contributing so little themselves.
Points scored and conceded
Recent points scored and conceded show how each team's match totals compare with the market.
Scoring and Defensive Trends
France have encountered England and Samoa, opponents capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses, while Lebanon have faced Tonga and Papua New Guinea. France's concessions are therefore not automatically a reliable guide to what Lebanon will score. Nevertheless, France have averaged 60 missed tackles across their two matches against Lebanon's 44.5. Both sit above the retained national-team comparison average of approximately 38. France have improved from 67 missed tackles against Samoa to 53 against England, but their opponents have still averaged 14 line breaks. Lebanon's opponents have averaged nine, showing that neither defence has been particularly secure.
Missed tackles
France have averaged 60 missed tackles against Lebanon's 44.5 across their two retained World Cup matches, creating substantial defensive opportunities without guaranteeing Lebanon can convert them into enough points to clear the market total.
Lebanon have the stronger territorial numbers, averaging 38.6 metres per set compared with France's 29.5 across their two matches. Lebanon are close to the retained national-team comparison average of 39 metres, while France remain considerably below it. Lebanon have also completed 80% of their sets against France's 75.5%, with both reaching 85% in Round 2. However, Lebanon have managed only two line breaks per match, against approximately 5.1 across the retained national-team comparison pool. France's 989.5 run metres per game underline their difficulty generating sustained attacking pressure. Lebanon should control more territory, but converting that advantage into repeated tries remains the challenge.
Average set distance
Lebanon's 38.6 metres per set compared with France's 29.5 suggests a territorial advantage, but France's limited progression makes sustained scoring from both sides less likely.
Key Players
Jacob Kiraz is an important addition to Lebanon's attacking options. Across five retained club appearances between 7 August and 3 September, he averaged 156.2 run metres, 56.8 post-contact metres and 3.6 tackle busts per match. His final appearance in that period produced 171 run metres and seven tackle busts. His running output had eased slightly during that sample, but those figures still demonstrate the capacity to generate valuable field position. Against France's vulnerable defensive line, that ball-carrying threat gives Lebanon another way to create attacking opportunities. Jason Saab also averaged 137.6 run metres across five retained club appearances from August to September, reinforcing the potential contribution from Lebanon's outside backs.
Jacob Kiraz — Run metres
Kiraz's 156.2 run metres per match across five retained club appearances from August to September give Lebanon an additional source of field position against a French defence struggling to contain opposition runners.
Thomas Lacans provides France with a possible source of attacking creativity. His five retained club appearances between 15 August and 11 September produced 1.2 try assists per match, with that output improving slightly during the period. However, his running contribution cooled from a five-match average of 55.6 metres to 38.7 across the final three appearances. France also have Benjamin Laguerre, who averaged 128.8 run metres across five retained club appearances from 8 August to 4 September. Those individual figures offer some encouragement, but France have scored only four points across their two World Cup matches. Club attacking contributions do not guarantee that France can establish the possession and field position required to threaten Lebanon consistently.
Thomas Lacans — Try assists
Lacans averaged 1.2 try assists across five retained club appearances, providing evidence of creative ability that could help France generate opportunities despite their extremely limited World Cup scoring.
Prediction And Value Bet
Lebanon should enjoy more opportunities to attack, particularly if their stronger completion and territorial returns continue. Kiraz's ball-carrying ability adds another dimension against a French defence that has struggled badly. Yet France's inability to generate sustained possession and Lebanon's limited attacking penetration make another enormous combined score far from certain. A convincing Lebanon victory with relatively little contribution from France remains a realistic outcome.
Our expected combined score is approximately 50 points, with a fair total of 49.5 against the market total of 56.5. That makes the market too high. France's defensive record creates genuine danger, but Lebanon would likely need to supply the overwhelming majority of the scoring to clear this number. Their improved attacking options are encouraging without erasing the concerns raised by their opening two performances. Our recommendation is Under 56.5 points at $1.90.
Check out other markets for this match: