Intro
The Dolphins and Roosters arrive with enough contrasting evidence to make this a fascinating head-to-head market. The Dolphins have produced the stronger recent attacking numbers and carry an 18-7 season record, while the Roosters sit at 17-9 and have travelled through the tougher recent schedule. The question for punters is whether that difference in recent output is enough to justify the Dolphins being clear favourites, or whether the Roosters have been underestimated after navigating stronger opposition.
The best price for Dolphins is $1.75 with Bet365, offering 3.4% better return than the average market price. The best price for Roosters is $2.27 with Sportsbet, offering 5% better return than the average market price.
Recent Form
The Dolphins have built an 18-7 season record and enter this contest after a week off. Their last five matches produced 26.4 points per game, ahead of the league average of 24.5, while their 43.8 metres per set also sits above the league mark of 41. They have completed 79% of their sets over that stretch, compared with 75% for the Roosters. The Dolphins have therefore been generating both territory and scoreboard pressure with reasonable consistency, although their 12.4 errors per game remain slightly worse than the league average of 11.9.
Margin
Margin combines scoring and defence into one number and anchors the recent form story.
The Roosters carry a 17-9 record and their recent five-game scoring average sits at 22.8 points, below the league mean of 24.5. Their completion rate of 75% is also below the league figure of 78.5%. That needs context because the Roosters faced the stronger recent schedule, and their most recent performance was a 46-point outing against the Sharks. Their defensive workload has also been substantial at 375.8 tackles per game, around 12 more than the league average of 363.8, yet they have restricted themselves to 30.6 missed tackles compared with the Dolphins' 32.
Strengths & Weaknesses
The Dolphins' clearest strength is their ability to keep moving through contact. They have generated 617.6 post-contact metres per game across their past five, almost 91 metres above the league average of 526.5. Their edge forwards have contributed 4.2 post-contact metres per run across the same span. That physical output feeds a side already gaining 1768 run metres per game, nearly 98 above the league average of 1670.4. The weakness is discipline around the ruck, where 4.6 infringements per game compares poorly with the league average of 3.2.
Missed tackles
The defensive comparison is close with the Dolphins at 32 missed tackles per game and the Roosters at 30.6.
The Roosters have been cleaner with possession than the Dolphins, making 11.4 errors per game compared with 12.4. Their opponents have also completed 81.6% of sets compared with 79% against the Dolphins, which adds weight to the difficulty of the Roosters' recent schedule. Defensively, the comparison is tight enough in missed tackles to largely cancel out, with the Roosters at 30.6 per game and the Dolphins at 32. The Roosters have nevertheless conceded plenty of sustained pressure, with opponents making 547.8 post-contact metres per game, while Dolphins opponents have produced 614.8.
Key Players
Herbie Farnworth has been the Dolphins' major individual ball-running weapon, producing 210 run metres per game across his last five appearances, while his 77.2 post-contact metres over the same window underline how much work he does after contact. He has also scored 1 try per game across those five. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has generated 161.2 run metres per game over his past five and 0.8 line breaks per game in that span, with his recent run metre output lifting to 172.3 across his latest three. Felise Kaufusi returns this week after producing 36.6 run metres per game across his previous five appearances.
Herbie Farnworth — Run metres
Farnworth's 210 run metres per game across his last five appearances makes his ball carrying central to the Dolphins' recent attacking output. The league average is based on players in the same position and is calculated using recent performance data across the competition.
James Tedesco has scored 1.2 tries per game across his last five appearances and supplied 1.4 line break assists per game over the same stretch, although his recent try output has cooled to 0.3 per game across his latest three. Sam Walker returns this week after producing 1.4 try assists per game across his previous five appearances, alongside 1.8 line break assists in that span. Mark Nawaqanitawase has added 60 post-contact metres per game across his last five and his offload output has climbed from 1.6 per game across five appearances to 2 across his latest three.
James Tedesco — Line break assists
Tedesco's 1.4 line break assists per game across his last five appearances highlights his role in creating opportunities for the Roosters. The league average is based on players in the same position and is calculated using recent performance data across the competition.
Tactical Outlook
The Dolphins have the numbers to make this a territorial contest. Their 43.8 metres per set gives them a meaningful advantage in how efficiently they travel downfield, while the Roosters' 47.2% possession across their past five sits below the league average of 48.8%. The counterpoint is ball security. The Roosters' 11.4 errors per game is cleaner than the Dolphins' 12.4, so loose Dolphins possession could prevent their running advantage from becoming sustained pressure. If the Dolphins control that part of the contest, their superior recent yardage should repeatedly force the Roosters to defend from uncomfortable positions. If the Roosters can keep the Dolphins working out of their own end, their returning creativity gives them a genuine route into the game.
Prediction & Value Bet
The Dolphins are our predicted winner, but this shapes as closer than their strongest recent numbers initially suggest. Their superior scoring output, set distance and running production deserve respect, while the Roosters' stronger recent schedule prevents us from treating the raw comparison as decisive. We assess the Dolphins as a 57% chance of winning. The Dolphins are $1.69 with a 59.1% market-implied probability. That asks punters to pay slightly more than our assessment supports. Our fair probability for the Roosters is 43%. The Roosters are $2.16 with a 46.2% market-implied probability. Neither side clears its current market expectation on our assessment, so the Dolphins are the tip to win but the head-to-head recommendation is no bet.
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